Alive and kicking: what health trends will continue after the pandemic?

In February, just before the Covid-19 pandemic reshaped the Western world, US grocery giant Kroger announced it was testing food as medicine.

In a trial in Cincinnati, “dietary prescriptions” written by a physician referred patients to Kroger Health dietitians at a local store. The dietitian provided personal nutritional advice and food suggestions to help the patient better manage his condition.

Interest in the links between food and health – already growing before the pandemic – has intensified during Covid-19. A significant percentage of those affected by the virus have had pre-existing conditions, convincing survivors and others that they should be doing more to take care of their health to try to prevent future problems – in part by examining what they eat.

As a result, packaged food manufacturers have been keen to emphasize the scientific authenticity of their products.

Sustained growth for health and well-being

Market watchers on both sides of the Atlantic are weighing which diet-related health claims are likely to stick and which are likely to fade once vaccines hopefully bring the virus under control.

Jack Bobo, CEO of Futurity, a Washington DC-based “food foresight company” and former special food policy adviser to the US State Department, says: “I think many of the trends in health and wellness be that we see now are going to stay.The current viral environment means that health is front and center for people alongside existing issues such as obesity.

Susie Fogelson, a New York-based food marketing strategist who runs consulting firm F&Co., agrees. “I don’t think there’s a clear path to ‘back to normal’. What’s happened in food and beverage over the past six months is very important,” says -she.

And Theadora Alexander, co-founder of London-based SME and consultancy network Young Foodies, says: “I think anything with a wellness angle will continue to grow in a post-Covid-19 world. It could be adding things like protein or vitamins, functional foods and also removing things, like sugar.

However, in what appears to be a broad acceptance that more consumers will remain health-focused post-pandemic, there are differing opinions on which nutrition claims are the most credible and therefore most likely to stand.

Hamish Renton, managing director of UK-based international food and drink consultancy HRA Global, said products that last will work “in the natural wellness space – kefir, kombucha, sourdough, collagen” .

“They have great legs while a lot of other things are more like the fashion industry – wonderful ingredients,” he adds.

Young Foodies’ Alexander thinks mental health and its links to nutrition are likely to become increasingly important.

“I think we’ll see more and more mindfulness-related foods — things like increasing calmness or reducing anxiety,” she says. “Rather than gut, health and immunity, it will be mental health.

“I’m also seeing more and more nootropics in food — chocolate bars that make you think more clearly or boost intelligence, maybe.”

Fogelson at F&Co. accepted. She says, “We’ve only scratched the surface when it comes to functional foods, for example. It’s food as medicine, but also things like calm and focus.

Back to pre-pandemic habits?

Arguments against this to the extent suggested are, firstly, that we are entering a period of recession and, secondly, that once Covid-19 is under control, people will revert to their old eating habits.

“Some people may go back to their old ways after Covid-19, but younger generations are more focused on wellness,” insists Alexander.

Fogelson adds, “If you do something for six months, it becomes a hard behavior to change,” she says.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of the agri-food analysis laboratory at Dalhousie University in Canada, suggests that certain eating habits will remain because they are linked to other changes imposed by the virus.

“Buying food online is on the rise. In some cases what people are buying is fast food, but there is a trend towards healthier options,” he says.

However, he is not convinced that we will not go back to our old habits to some extent or that other issues may become more important.

“Once we have a vaccine, humans being humans, we’re going to want to treat ourselves,” he says. “I’m not sure the public health crisis will have a long-term impact on what kind of food people buy.

“Once we have the vaccine, other things like climate change and animal welfare will become more important again.”

As for the planet entering a recession, views differ on what this could mean for people’s food choices.

Futurity’s Bobo says: “There is an economic impact of the crisis that will be on people’s minds. As people face a financial crisis, they will become more cautious and perhaps spend less on pleasure products, he insists. They will spend more on their family’s health.

Others cite the price of certain health-oriented foods and beverages as a potential problem during times of economic stress. “Something like functional foods crosses all categories. The only challenge is that it’s expensive,” says Fogelson.

“It’s a barrier, but no one thought people would pay $5 for a cup of coffee. [However], with a cost barrier, you need to have a range of access points for price-conscious consumers. It would be a missed opportunity not to expand accessibility.

Winners and losers

John Stapleton, a food entrepreneur who created and sold British brands New Covent Garden Soup Co. and Little Dish, is a good judge of what product innovation will stick. “Gut health has come of age. The technology around it has evolved. The effectiveness of gut health claims is maintained,” he says.

Stapleton believes regulators will help shape the foods we buy over the next few years. “They are cracking down on HFSS [high fat, sugar and salt] some products. It’s interesting because a lot of snacks are all based on these ingredients.

While there must be winners, there can also be losers due to the food choices we make post-pandemic. It could be HFSS foods, but market watchers suggest some products tied to health claims might also not be taking the course.

Stapleton suggests it could be immunity claims around turmeric and ginger, for example, or products with added vitamin C.

“When it comes to remedies and powders, there are justifiable claims, but more broadly, the key to immunity is eating and drinking properly and sleeping well,” he says. “There were a lot of marching jumps in July and August.

“Also, you can add protein to a lot of things, but the question is why? Unless you’re a bodybuilder, most people get enough of it in their regular diet.

At Young Foodies, Alexander sees another product area that may not have legs. “I remain interested in CBD but haven’t seen enough evidence of repeat purchases to show that it will be as big as people are touting it. It’s one I’m watching very closely.

Bobo says he’s “not at all sold on some of the foods that boost immunity or mood,” while at HRA Global, Renton agrees outside of products like kefir and kombucha, “immunity more generally could be a flash in the pan”.

Bill Bishop, co-founder of US grocery industry analyst firm Brick Meets Click, says consumers “are right to be on their guard for snake oil, there’s a lot of it,” but he thinks personalization-related health claims are a growth area to watch.

“The way it plays out is intriguing. As part of Kroger’s healthcare system, you perform genetic testing based on your genetic predisposition that suggests what’s best for you. These personal recommendations are then directed to an individual store and reflect what is listed in that store. The willingness of anyone who cares to accept this is high.

Bishop points to a larger issue that could also impact people’s food choices.

“The other thing at work here is that in the United States there has been a real erosion of trust in science and institutions. It’s a societal trend and Covid-19 could be a catalyst. A lot of people have taken responsibility for their own health,” he says. “I think manufacturers are going to work hard to make their products healthier and look for unique attributes in them.”

Maria J. Book